Photo credit: The Punch
2025-12-22 09:00:00
An analysis published by *The Punch* says the Federal Government is projecting about ₦60.97 trillion in oil revenue for 2026—lower than the prior year’s expected oil take—reflecting more cautious assumptions on price and output.
The projection is tied to the 2026 Appropriation framework and the administration’s budget posture, where debt service, capital expenditure, and security spending are competing heavily for limited revenues.
Analysts note that oil revenue forecasts are especially sensitive to production disruptions, theft, and global price swings—meaning fiscal planning can change quickly if any variable moves.
The broader implication is clear: if oil underperforms, the pressure shifts to non-oil revenues, borrowing, and reforms—each with political and economic trade-offs.
Reuters reported the budget assumes “a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel” with output around “1.84 million barrels per day,” while *The Guardian (Nigeria)* similarly stated the plan is built on a “$64.85 per barrel oil benchmark” and “1.84 million barrels per day” production assumption.
**Echotitbits take:** Conservative oil assumptions are good discipline—but only if the government actually delivers non-oil revenue growth. Watch for tax admin upgrades, customs efficiency, and whether production targets improve without new leakage.
Source: The Punch — December 22, 2025 (https://punchng.com/fg-projects-lower-n60-97tn-oil-revenue-for-2026/)
