Echotitbits – Nigeria News

Category: Economy|Government Policy|International Economics

  • FG’s 2026 plan pegs lower crude-oil revenue as fiscal pressure persists

    FG’s 2026 plan pegs lower crude-oil revenue as fiscal pressure persists

    Photo Credit: The Punch
    2025-12-22 08:00:00

    Reporting by Punch indicates the Federal Government is projecting a smaller crude-oil revenue figure for 2026, putting expected receipts from crude sales at about ₦60.97 trillion—below the 2025 projection.

    The estimate is tied to planning assumptions in the MTEF, including an oil benchmark price around $64.85 per barrel, daily output near 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange-rate assumption around ₦1,400/$.

    The signal is that tighter oil expectations will increase pressure to grow non-oil revenues, control leakages, and keep spending plans realistic as macro risks remain elevated.

    Reuters similarly summarised the plan as one that “assumes a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel” and output around 1.84 million bpd, while TheCable reported lawmakers endorsed the “projected crude oil benchmark prices of $64.85 per barrel” for planning.

    Echotitbits take: Nigeria’s budget risk remains production, not just price. If output falls short, even supportive pricing won’t protect revenues. Watch for upstream security actions, investment-friendly reforms, and a stronger non-oil collection push.

    Source: The Punch — December 22, 2025 (https://punchng.com/fg-projects-lower-n60-97tn-oil-revenue-for-2026/)

    The Punch 2025-12-22

  • Senate backs ₦54.46trn 2026 spending framework, cuts oil price benchmark to $60

    Senate backs ₦54.46trn 2026 spending framework, cuts oil price benchmark to $60

    Photo Credit: Punch
    2025-12-16

    Lawmakers in the Senate have approved the 2026–2028 medium‑term expenditure and fiscal strategy framework, endorsing a ₦54.46 trillion 2026 spending plan and lowering the crude oil benchmark for 2026 to $60 per barrel.

    According to reports on the debate, the lower benchmark reflects caution about global oil volatility, even as output assumptions remain aggressive. The framework also keeps key macro assumptions such as the exchange‑rate projection and multi‑year inflation and growth targets.

    The decisions matter because they set the ‘envelope’ for the 2026 budget — shaping how much government can borrow, what it can spend on capital projects, and how it prioritises debt servicing and social spending.

    Markets will be watching whether the conservative oil price assumption reduces revenue disappointment — and whether reforms, including tax administration changes, can realistically close the gap between projections and collections.

    BusinessDay: Musa said the adjustment was necessary “in recognition of the global geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East and the sensitivity of global crude oil prices.”

    THISDAY: “A key decision was the downward review of the crude oil benchmark price for 2026 from $64.85 per barrel to $60.”

    Analysis/Echotitbits take: A lower oil benchmark can improve budget credibility — but only if production and revenue assumptions aren’t over‑optimistic. Watch the final budget draft, borrowing plans, and how the government hedges against oil‑price and FX shocks.

    Source: Punch — December 17, 2025 — https://punchng.com/senate-lowers-oil-benchmark-approves-n54-46tn-budget/