Echotitbits – Nigeria News

Tag: CBN

  • CBN Forecasts 4.49% GDP Growth for 2026 Amid Lower Inflation Targets

    CBN Forecasts 4.49% GDP Growth for 2026 Amid Lower Inflation Targets

    According to The Nation, the Central Bank of Nigeria has projected an optimistic economic outlook for 2026, forecasting a 4.49% growth in Gross Domestic Product. The apex bank also anticipates that inflation will ease significantly, aiming for an average of 12.94% by the end of the year.

    The projections are based on the expected stabilization of the foreign exchange market and an increase in domestic oil production. The CBN believes that the ‘painful but necessary’ reforms of the past two years are finally yielding a foundation for sustainable non-oil sector expansion.

    This optimism is shared by the World Bank, which recently gave a ‘positive verdict on Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory,’ citing three years of unbroken growth. Furthermore, The Guardian reported that AI integration in the financial sector will ‘revolutionize risk pricing and personalized liquidity management,’ further supporting the CBN’s modernization goals.

    Echotitbits take: Achieving sub-13% inflation from the highs of 2024–2025 is an ambitious target. Watch for the CBN to maintain high interest rates well into mid-2026 to ensure this disinflationary trend isn’t disrupted by election-cycle spending or supply shocks.

    Source: The Guardian — https://guardian.ng/business-services/cbn-projects-4-49-growth-lower-inflation-in-2026-outlook/
    The Guardian January 3, 2026

    Photo Credit: The Guardian

  • Naira Opens 2026 With Strong Gains as Reform Confidence Grows

    Naira Opens 2026 With Strong Gains as Reform Confidence Grows

    Figures cited by Daily Post show that the Nigerian Naira began the 2026 trading year on a positive note, appreciating to N1,430.84 against the U.S. dollar in the official market. This represents a 0.34% gain compared to the closing rate of N1,435.75 recorded on December 31, 2025.

    The currency’s performance is being linked to renewed investor confidence following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) aggressive monetary tightening and structural reforms in the foreign exchange market. Market analysts suggest that the stability seen in the opening days of the year could signal a less volatile period for the local currency.

    In its first trading assessment of the year, BusinessDay noted that the ‘Naira extends rally in first trading day of 2026,’ as supply liquidity showed signs of improvement. Meanwhile, The Nation reported that the apex bank is betting on ‘structural changes in oil, tax, and foreign exchange markets to sustain growth and disinflation’ throughout the fiscal year.

    Echotitbits take: This early gain is a psychological victory for the CBN’s ‘orthodox’ monetary policy. If the bank can maintain this trajectory without depleting reserves too quickly, we may see a gradual convergence between the official and parallel market rates by the second quarter.

    Source: Nigeria Housing Market — https://www.nigeriahousingmarket.com/news/naira-outlook-2026-analysts-project-stronger-fx-stability-as-fundamentals-improve
    Nigeria Housing Market January 3, 2026

    Photo Credit: Nigeria Housing Market

  • FirstBank hits ₦500bn recapitalisation mark as market eyes the next wave of bank fundraising

    FirstBank hits ₦500bn recapitalisation mark as market eyes the next wave of bank fundraising

    2026-01-02 06:00:00
    According to Punch, FirstBank says it has completed a ₦500 billion capital raise, positioning it to meet the CBN’s new minimum capital thresholds and to compete more aggressively in a tighter regulatory environment.

    The fundraising is being framed as a resilience move—strengthening buffers and supporting growth—while also sending a signalling effect to investors ahead of the broader recapitalisation race across the sector.

    Market watchers say the milestone could influence peers’ timelines and pricing, as more banks line up with rights issues, private placements and other instruments.

    Premium Times reports FirstBank “successfully completes ₦500bn capital raise,” noting the wider recapitalisation push and investor attention. The Sun similarly says the bank has “met the ₦500 billion minimum capital base required by the Central Bank of Nigeria,” highlighting the compliance angle.

    Echotitbits take: Completing early matters—capital raising gets tougher when several banks are in the market at once. Watch whether FirstBank’s move shifts competitive pressure to mid‑tier lenders, and whether pricing dynamics start to favour banks with stronger retail funding and clearer growth narratives.

    Source: The Punch — January 2, 2026 (https://punchng.com/firstbank-completes-n500bn-capital-raise/)
    The Punch 2026-01-02

    Photo Credit: The Punch

  • Nigeria bank NPLs jump to about 7% after CBN rolls back COVID-era forbearance

    Nigeria bank NPLs jump to about 7% after CBN rolls back COVID-era forbearance

    2026-01-02 06:00:00
    Figures cited by Punch show Nigeria’s banking sector recorded a rise in non‑performing loans (NPLs) in 2025 after the CBN ended key regulatory forbearance measures introduced during the COVID‑19 period.

    The CBN’s macroeconomic outlook puts the NPL ratio at an estimated 7%, above the 5% prudential limit, raising concerns about asset quality and how quickly lenders can rebalance risk without choking credit.

    Analysts say the shift forces more realistic loss recognition and provisioning, but also increases pressure on earnings and capital—especially for lenders with heavy exposures in vulnerable sectors.

    BusinessDay reports NPLs rose to “an estimated seven percent,” breaching the prudential threshold, following the withdrawal of forbearance. The CBN’s published outlook states the “Non‑performing Loans (NPLs) ratio stood at an estimated 7.00 per cent” relative to the 5% limit.

    Echotitbits take: This is where recapitalisation and risk management collide. If banks tighten too aggressively, SMEs and consumer credit will feel it; if they don’t, provisioning will eat profits. Watch quarterly disclosures for sector-by-sector stress, and whether the CBN introduces targeted transitional guidance.

    Source: The Punch — January 2, 2026 (https://punchng.com/banks-bad-loans-spike-after-cbn-withdraws-forbearance/)
    The Punch 2026-01-02

    Photo Credit: The Punch

  • CBN outlook: bank recapitalisation may keep markets bullish—but concentration risks loom

    CBN outlook: bank recapitalisation may keep markets bullish—but concentration risks loom

    2026-01-02 06:00:00
    In an update published by Punch, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that Nigeria’s capital market could remain upbeat in 2026, helped by banking-sector recapitalisation, improved investor sentiment and pro‑growth policies.

    The CBN’s broader outlook links market sentiment to macro stability—exchange-rate management, inflation expectations and the credibility of policy signals—suggesting that a cleaner macro picture could support risk appetite.

    But the outlook also flags potential downsides, including investor fatigue if bank capital raises crowd out other issuers.

    The Guardian, referencing the CBN outlook, notes the market is expected to stay “bullish, supported by bank recapitalisation” and rising confidence. In an analysis of recapitalisation dynamics, a separate market brief warns that “despite the bullish momentum, the capital market could face higher concentration risk” as bank issuance dominates.

    Echotitbits take: Recapitalisation can be a turbo‑charge for bank resilience—but it can also soak up liquidity and attention. Watch how quickly banks stagger rights issues/placements, whether pension funds rebalance, and if non‑bank corporates still find room to raise long‑term capital without being priced out.

    Source: The Punch — January 2, 2026 (https://punchng.com/bank-recapitalisation-to-drive-bullish-capital-market-says-cbn/)
    The Punch 2026-01-02

    Photo Credit: The Punch

  • CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%

    CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%

    2025-12-31 09:00:00

    According to The Nation, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest macro outlook projects real GDP growth of about 4.49% in 2026, while average inflation is expected to ease to roughly 12.94% as reforms, forex stability and improved output begin to bite.

    The outlook points to a mix of stronger non‑oil activity and a steadier external position, with the apex bank signalling that structural reforms and better macro coordination could support a more durable recovery.

    Markets will watch whether the assumptions—especially oil output and FX conditions—hold into Q1 2026, and how the forecast shapes monetary-policy expectations.

    Reuters also reported that the CBN “forecasts 4.49% economic growth” and sees inflation “easing to an average 12.94% in 2026,” while BusinessDay similarly wrote that Nigeria’s economy is “projected to expand by 4.49 percent in 2026.”

    Echotitbits take: The headline numbers look optimistic versus Nigeria’s recent inflation experience. The real test is whether disinflation is driven by supply (food, logistics, energy) and FX stability—not just base effects. Watch Q1 inflation prints and CBN messaging on rates/liquidity.

    Source: Guardian — December 31, 2025 (https://guardian.ng/business-services/cbn-projects-4-49-growth-lower-inflation-in-2026-outlook/)

    Guardian December 31, 2025

    Photo Credit: Guardian

  • GTCO moves to raise ₦10bn via private placement as recapitalisation pressure builds

    GTCO moves to raise ₦10bn via private placement as recapitalisation pressure builds

    2025-12-31 08:28:00

    As reported by PUNCH, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) says it will raise ₦10bn through a private placement involving 125 million ordinary shares, positioned within its regulatory and capital-raising framework.

    The company says the transaction follows relevant guidelines for financial holding companies, and it’s structured as a targeted placement rather than a broad public offer.

    In a market where banks are racing to meet higher capital thresholds, deals like this signal a preference for faster, cleaner capital injections—especially if investor demand is solid.

    Validation: Investegate said “undertaking a private placement to raise ₦10 billion by issuing 125,000,000 ordinary shares at ₦80 per share.” and TheCable reported “has secured approvals from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).”

    Echotitbits take: Private placements are speed tools—good for timelines, but they test investor appetite and pricing discipline. Watch the pricing mechanics, investor mix, and whether more tier-1 banks follow with similar structures.

    Source: The Punch— 31 December 2025 (https://punchng.com/gtco-to-raise-n10bn-through-private-placement/)

    The Punch 31 December 2025

    Photo Credit: The Punch

  • CBN projects FX reserves could hit $51bn by 2026

    CBN projects FX reserves could hit $51bn by 2026

    2025-12-31 08:21:00

    Figures cited by PUNCH show the Central Bank of Nigeria expects external reserves to climb to about $51.04bn in 2026, up from a projected $45bn in 2025, based on assumptions about FX-market conditions and inflows.

    The forecast is tied to the CBN’s 2026 macro outlook, leaning on expectations of reduced pressure in the FX market, improved export earnings, and higher remittance inflows.

    CBN also points to refining capacity and broader reforms as potential tailwinds that reduce import pressure and support reserve accumulation over time.

    Validation: Channels Television said “The external reserves are projected at $51.04bn in 2026, compared with $45.01bn in 2025.” and The Guardian reported “external reserves… to rise to US$51.04 billion.”

    Echotitbits take: This projection is optimistic—and markets will judge credibility by liquidity and transparency. Watch the drivers: oil receipts, diaspora remittances, and whether FX spreads truly narrow across official and parallel windows.

    Source: The Punch — 31 December 2025 (https://punchng.com/fx-reserves-to-hit-51bn-by-2026-cbn/)

    The Punch 31 December 2025

    Photo Credit: The Punch

  • Nigeria’s FDI jumps to $720m in Q3 as investor appetite rebounds

    Nigeria’s FDI jumps to $720m in Q3 as investor appetite rebounds

    2025-12-31 08:14:00

    In an update published by PUNCH, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s balance-of-payments data shows foreign direct investment rose to about $720 million in Q3 2025—well above the prior quarter—signalling stronger long-term capital flows.

    The report links the uptick to improved long-term equity participation and reinvested earnings, with broader macro indicators providing a friendlier backdrop for foreign investors.

    While portfolio flows can swing fast, FDI is the stickier vote of confidence—typically tied to longer-horizon commitments and real-economy decisions.

    Validation: Radio Now said “Foreign direct investment into Nigeria jumped sharply to $720 million in the third quarter of 2025, up from $90 million in the second quarter.” and The Will reported “jumped to $720m in Q3 2025… marking the highest level this year.”

    Echotitbits take: The headline is strong, but sustainability matters more than a one-quarter spike. Watch Q4/Q1 continuity, sector breakdowns, and whether FX-market stability remains credible enough for long-term investors.

    Source: The Punch — 31 December 2025 (https://punchng.com/nigeria-attracts-720m-fdi-as-foreign-investment-rebounds/)

    The Punch 31 December 2025

    Photo Credit: The Punch