Echotitbits – Nigeria News

Tag: fiscal deficit

  • CBN projects faster growth and stronger reserves in 2026 as inflation eases

    CBN projects faster growth and stronger reserves in 2026 as inflation eases

    According to Premium Times, the CBN’s 2026 macro outlook projects faster economic expansion alongside further inflation moderation and stronger external buffers.

    The baseline assumes reform momentum continues—supporting business confidence, improving FX market credibility, and lifting investment planning if volatility stays contained.

    On prices, the outlook points to headline inflation easing further in 2026 as food and energy pressures cool and supply conditions improve, though risks remain from oil-output shocks and fiscal slippages.

    CBN also sketches a fiscal picture that still requires revenue reforms and expenditure discipline to avoid renewed macro stress.

    Vanguard reported the central bank forecast includes “a 4.49 per cent growth in GDP” and external reserves rising to “$51.04 billion.” Leadership similarly highlighted that CBN “forecasts $51bn external reserves in 2026.”

    Echotitbits take: This is cautious optimism, not a victory lap. Watch oil output, FX liquidity, and whether fiscal discipline holds—those will decide if the forecast becomes reality.

    Source: Premium Times – https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/846528-nigerian-economy-expected-to-grow-4-49-in-2026-inflation-to-ease-cbn.html December 30, 2025
    Premium Times December 30, 2025

    Photo Credit: Premium Times

  • FG’s Deficit Funding: N6.1trn Raised Locally in Six Months

    FG’s Deficit Funding: N6.1trn Raised Locally in Six Months

    Photo Credit: The Punch
    2025-12-25 09:10:00

    In a budget-performance update cited by The Punch, Nigeria’s federal government reportedly raised about N6.10 trillion from domestic sources in the first half of 2025 to help plug a wide fiscal gap. The report points to a deficit of roughly N5.70 trillion, with financing largely driven by local borrowing instruments.

    The same performance data indicates debt service pressure remains heavy, with large outflows to service obligations even as revenues lag spending needs. That combination—high deficits and high debt service—continues to compress fiscal space for social and capital priorities.

    The report also suggests the borrowing mix leaned heavily on bonds and other local issuances, reinforcing the concern that domestic credit may be crowded toward government paper instead of private-sector lending.

    Corroborating the same Budget Office picture, another outlet reported the government had to finance the deficit through “domestic borrowing… of N5.70tn” and proceeds including “privatisation… N64.92bn,” while a separate report noted “debt service was N4.44tn,” underscoring the weight of repayments in the fiscal structure.

    Echotitbits take: Nigeria’s deficit story is increasingly a debt-service story. Watch for (1) whether revenue reforms lift the non-oil base fast enough, and (2) whether domestic borrowing costs ease—because a sustained high-rate environment makes deficits more expensive and squeezes development spending.

    Source: The Punch — December 25, 2025 (https://punchng.com/budget-deficit-fg-raises-n6tn-locally-in-six-months/)

    The Punch 2025-12-25

  • Budget pressure: FG projects ₦60.97tn oil revenue for 2026 on tighter assumptions

    Budget pressure: FG projects ₦60.97tn oil revenue for 2026 on tighter assumptions

    Photo credit: The Punch

    2025-12-22 09:00:00

    An analysis published by *The Punch* says the Federal Government is projecting about ₦60.97 trillion in oil revenue for 2026—lower than the prior year’s expected oil take—reflecting more cautious assumptions on price and output.

    The projection is tied to the 2026 Appropriation framework and the administration’s budget posture, where debt service, capital expenditure, and security spending are competing heavily for limited revenues.

    Analysts note that oil revenue forecasts are especially sensitive to production disruptions, theft, and global price swings—meaning fiscal planning can change quickly if any variable moves.

    The broader implication is clear: if oil underperforms, the pressure shifts to non-oil revenues, borrowing, and reforms—each with political and economic trade-offs.

    Reuters reported the budget assumes “a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel” with output around “1.84 million barrels per day,” while *The Guardian (Nigeria)* similarly stated the plan is built on a “$64.85 per barrel oil benchmark” and “1.84 million barrels per day” production assumption.

    **Echotitbits take:** Conservative oil assumptions are good discipline—but only if the government actually delivers non-oil revenue growth. Watch for tax admin upgrades, customs efficiency, and whether production targets improve without new leakage.

    Source: The Punch — December 22, 2025 (https://punchng.com/fg-projects-lower-n60-97tn-oil-revenue-for-2026/)

  • Debt Service and Salaries Outstrip Federal Revenue in 2025 Budget Data

    Debt Service and Salaries Outstrip Federal Revenue in 2025 Budget Data

    2025-12-18 00:00:00

    According to Punch, official budget documents show that debt service and personnel costs consumed more than the Federal Government’s total revenue in the first seven months of 2025, underscoring the pressure on fiscal space.

    The report says earnings came in well below pro-rata targets, forcing deep cuts to capital spending and tightening the room for new projects without additional borrowing or revenue reforms.

    The figures add weight to growing concerns about budget credibility, cash-backing of appropriations, and the need for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.

    BusinessDay reported that “debt servicing and personnel costs consumed more than the Federal Government’s entire revenue” for the period, citing official budget documents. (BusinessDay)

    Another report on the same figures said Nigeria earned far below targets between January and July and that the gap hit capital releases hard. (Legit.ng)

    Analysis/Echotitbits take: When “fixed” obligations swallow revenue, the real economy suffers via delayed infrastructure and weak service delivery. Watch for 2026 revenue measures, credible subsidy/accounting reforms, and how government aligns spending plans with cash realities.

    Source: Punch — December 18, 2025 (https://punchng.com/salaries-debt-service-gulp-105-of-govt-revenue/)

    Photo credit: Punch

  • Nigeria’s 2025 Revenue Gap Hits ₦30tn, Finance Ministry Signals Tougher Budget Choices

    Nigeria’s 2025 Revenue Gap Hits ₦30tn, Finance Ministry Signals Tougher Budget Choices

    Photo Credit: Punch

    2025-12-17

    According to *The Punch*, Nigeria’s Finance Minister Wale Edun says the Federal Government recorded about ₦30 trillion in revenue shortfall in 2025, underscoring how weaker-than-expected inflows are tightening fiscal space.

    The report points to the knock-on effect on budget execution: with revenue underperforming, the government may face sharper trade-offs between debt servicing, capital spending, and core social obligations.

    It also raises questions around the pace of non-oil revenue reforms and the reliability of projected collections as Nigeria navigates inflation, exchange-rate pressures, and a still-fragile recovery.

    Other reporting on the same development includes:
    – Reuters: “Nigeria’s fiscal pressures are intensifying as revenue performance lags spending needs.”
    – Bloomberg: “Officials are weighing additional measures to close the gap as financing costs remain elevated.”

    Analysis/Echotitbits take: A ₦30tn gap is a warning flare for 2026 planning—expect tougher scrutiny of waivers, leakages, and under-remittance. Watch the next FEC/Finance briefings for concrete revenue-side actions and whether spending is reprioritised toward high-multiplier projects.

    Source: The Punch — December 17, 2025 (https://punchng.com/fg-recorded-n30tn-revenue-shortfall-in-2025-edun/)