According to reporting by The Nation Newspaper, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has released a bullish forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, predicting a 5.5% expansion in the nation’s Gross Domestic Product. The group attributes this optimistic outlook to the maturation of bold policy shifts, including the stabilization of the foreign exchange market and a steady decline in headline inflation. This projection suggests that the “crisis conditions” which characterized the previous two years are finally giving way to a more sustainable growth trajectory.
The NESG’s assessment emphasizes that while the macroeconomic indicators are turning green, the government must prioritize the institutionalization of these reforms to ensure they translate into tangible improvements in the welfare of citizens. The report highlights that the private sector is regaining confidence, which is expected to drive investment in critical sectors like manufacturing and agriculture throughout the year.
Validation of this positive trend is found in reports from Vanguard News and S&P Global. Vanguard notes that PwC experts also see a brightening outlook for 2026, though they caution that “the gains remain fragile and highly exposed to oil market volatility.” Meanwhile, S&P Global’s latest analysis supports the growth narrative, stating, “We forecast Nigeria’s real GDP growth will average 3.7% to 5.5% over 2025-2026, supported by both the non-oil and oil sectors.”
Echotitbits take: The 5.5% growth target is ambitious but achievable if the current exchange rate stability holds. However, the disconnect between GDP growth and the cost of living remains a significant political risk for the administration. Watch for the Q1 2026 productivity data to see if the manufacturing sector actually picks up the slack as predicted.
Source: The Punch – https://punchng.com/impi-projects-nigerias-gdp-to-hit-5-5/ , February 3, 2026
Photo credit: The Punch
