According to Vanguard, a CBN-linked macro projection suggests petrol could average around N950 per litre, reflecting a model-driven outlook shaped by exchange rates and supply costs. (more…)
Tag: macroeconomic outlook
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CBN projects faster growth and stronger reserves in 2026 as inflation eases
According to Premium Times, the CBN’s 2026 macro outlook projects faster economic expansion alongside further inflation moderation and stronger external buffers.
The baseline assumes reform momentum continues—supporting business confidence, improving FX market credibility, and lifting investment planning if volatility stays contained.
On prices, the outlook points to headline inflation easing further in 2026 as food and energy pressures cool and supply conditions improve, though risks remain from oil-output shocks and fiscal slippages.
CBN also sketches a fiscal picture that still requires revenue reforms and expenditure discipline to avoid renewed macro stress.
Vanguard reported the central bank forecast includes “a 4.49 per cent growth in GDP” and external reserves rising to “$51.04 billion.” Leadership similarly highlighted that CBN “forecasts $51bn external reserves in 2026.”
Echotitbits take: This is cautious optimism, not a victory lap. Watch oil output, FX liquidity, and whether fiscal discipline holds—those will decide if the forecast becomes reality.
Source: Premium Times – https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/846528-nigerian-economy-expected-to-grow-4-49-in-2026-inflation-to-ease-cbn.html December 30, 2025
Premium Times December 30, 2025Photo Credit: Premium Times
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Nigeria bank NPLs jump to about 7% after CBN rolls back COVID-era forbearance
2026-01-02 06:00:00
Figures cited by Punch show Nigeria’s banking sector recorded a rise in non‑performing loans (NPLs) in 2025 after the CBN ended key regulatory forbearance measures introduced during the COVID‑19 period.The CBN’s macroeconomic outlook puts the NPL ratio at an estimated 7%, above the 5% prudential limit, raising concerns about asset quality and how quickly lenders can rebalance risk without choking credit.
Analysts say the shift forces more realistic loss recognition and provisioning, but also increases pressure on earnings and capital—especially for lenders with heavy exposures in vulnerable sectors.
BusinessDay reports NPLs rose to “an estimated seven percent,” breaching the prudential threshold, following the withdrawal of forbearance. The CBN’s published outlook states the “Non‑performing Loans (NPLs) ratio stood at an estimated 7.00 per cent” relative to the 5% limit.
Echotitbits take: This is where recapitalisation and risk management collide. If banks tighten too aggressively, SMEs and consumer credit will feel it; if they don’t, provisioning will eat profits. Watch quarterly disclosures for sector-by-sector stress, and whether the CBN introduces targeted transitional guidance.
Source: The Punch — January 2, 2026 (https://punchng.com/banks-bad-loans-spike-after-cbn-withdraws-forbearance/)
The Punch 2026-01-02Photo Credit: The Punch
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CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%
2025-12-31 09:00:00
According to The Nation, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest macro outlook projects real GDP growth of about 4.49% in 2026, while average inflation is expected to ease to roughly 12.94% as reforms, forex stability and improved output begin to bite.
The outlook points to a mix of stronger non‑oil activity and a steadier external position, with the apex bank signalling that structural reforms and better macro coordination could support a more durable recovery.
Markets will watch whether the assumptions—especially oil output and FX conditions—hold into Q1 2026, and how the forecast shapes monetary-policy expectations.
Reuters also reported that the CBN “forecasts 4.49% economic growth” and sees inflation “easing to an average 12.94% in 2026,” while BusinessDay similarly wrote that Nigeria’s economy is “projected to expand by 4.49 percent in 2026.”
Echotitbits take: The headline numbers look optimistic versus Nigeria’s recent inflation experience. The real test is whether disinflation is driven by supply (food, logistics, energy) and FX stability—not just base effects. Watch Q1 inflation prints and CBN messaging on rates/liquidity.
Source: Guardian — December 31, 2025 (https://guardian.ng/business-services/cbn-projects-4-49-growth-lower-inflation-in-2026-outlook/)
Guardian December 31, 2025
Photo Credit: Guardian
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CBN projects FX reserves could hit $51bn by 2026
2025-12-31 08:21:00
Figures cited by PUNCH show the Central Bank of Nigeria expects external reserves to climb to about $51.04bn in 2026, up from a projected $45bn in 2025, based on assumptions about FX-market conditions and inflows.
The forecast is tied to the CBN’s 2026 macro outlook, leaning on expectations of reduced pressure in the FX market, improved export earnings, and higher remittance inflows.
CBN also points to refining capacity and broader reforms as potential tailwinds that reduce import pressure and support reserve accumulation over time.
Validation: Channels Television said “The external reserves are projected at $51.04bn in 2026, compared with $45.01bn in 2025.” and The Guardian reported “external reserves… to rise to US$51.04 billion.”
Echotitbits take: This projection is optimistic—and markets will judge credibility by liquidity and transparency. Watch the drivers: oil receipts, diaspora remittances, and whether FX spreads truly narrow across official and parallel windows.
Source: The Punch — 31 December 2025 (https://punchng.com/fx-reserves-to-hit-51bn-by-2026-cbn/)
The Punch 31 December 2025
Photo Credit: The Punch