Echotitbits – Nigeria News

Tag: monetary policy

  • Naira Maintains Stability Against Dollar Amid Low Speculative Demand

    Naira Maintains Stability Against Dollar Amid Low Speculative Demand

    Figures cited by Vanguard show that the Nigerian Naira opened at ₦1,367.10 per dollar in the official window this Friday, maintaining a steady course below the ₦1,400 threshold. Financial analysts attribute this relative calm to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) consistent market interventions and a transparent electronic trading framework that has significantly dampened the activities of currency speculators.

    The currency’s performance was also tracked by BusinessDay and The Cable, which both reported a narrowing gap between the official and parallel markets. BusinessDay observed that “the absence of aggressive hoarding has stabilized retail demand,” while The Cable quoted a BDC operator in Abuja saying, “The market is no longer as volatile as it was last year; supply is more predictable now.”

    Market experts suggest that the current stability is a result of a 15.15% moderating inflation rate and the CBN’s decision to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.00%. This high-interest-rate environment has continued to attract foreign portfolio investment, providing the necessary liquidity to support the local currency.

    Echotitbits take: The Naira’s stability is a win for the CBN’s orthodox monetary policies. However, for this to be sustainable in the long term, Nigeria needs to significantly diversify its export base to move beyond total reliance on oil-driven forex inflows.

    Source: Legit.ng – https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/economy/1695016-dollar-stumbles-year-naira-opens-month-a-surprise-surge/, February 6, 2026

    Photo credit: Legit.ng

  • Naira Maintains Resilience in Official Market as Exchange Rate Stabilizes

    Naira Maintains Resilience in Official Market as Exchange Rate Stabilizes

    Figures cited by Vanguard show that the Nigerian Naira held its ground against the US Dollar on February 4, 2026, opening the session at approximately N1,387.42 in the official window. This continued stability is being attributed to the sustained impact of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), which has drastically reduced speculative activities and improved market transparency.

    Market analysts observe that the naira’s performance is bolstered by healthy external reserves and the clearing of historic FX backlogs. While the parallel market continues to trade at a premium—ranging between N1,460 and N1,475—the spread has narrowed significantly compared to the volatility experienced in late 2025. The absence of “aggressive speculative activity” is seen as a major win for the current monetary policy direction.

    This stability is corroborated by reports from Punch and ThisDay. Punch highlights that the convergence of rates is helping corporate planning, stating that “businesses are finally seeing a predictable window for import financing.” Meanwhile, ThisDay reports that the central bank’s recent liquidity injections have successfully met retail demand, with an analyst quoted as saying, “The current exchange rate reflects a genuine market equilibrium rather than artificial suppression.”

    Echotitbits take: The Naira’s stability is a breather for an economy that has faced years of currency trauma. The success of the EFEMS suggests that structural reforms in the FX market are finally taking root. For the average Nigerian, this could lead to a gradual reduction in the cost of imported goods, provided the CBN maintains its current level of transparency and supply.

    Source: The Punch – https://punchng.com/naira-hits-1418-26-at-official-market/, February 4, 2026

    Photo credit: The Punch

  • High Interest Rates Stifle Private Sector Lending to Five-Year Low

    High Interest Rates Stifle Private Sector Lending to Five-Year Low

    Figures cited by The Guardian show that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s aggressive monetary tightening has successfully reined in inflation but at a heavy cost to business expansion. Lending growth to the private sector has plummeted to its lowest level since 2020, as deposit money banks become increasingly wary of high-risk loans in a high-interest-rate environment. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are bearing the brunt of the credit crunch.

    Data from the apex bank indicates that credit growth fell sharply to under 1% in the last quarter, a stark contrast to the double-digit growth seen in previous years. While the CBN maintains that high rates are necessary to stabilize the Naira, business groups warn that the lack of affordable credit is forcing many local manufacturers to scale down operations or halt expansion plans entirely.

    Vanguard and The Nation also reported on the credit slowdown. Vanguard highlighted that “banks are prioritizing government securities over private loans,” while The Nation quoted a Lagos Chamber of Commerce official who said, “At 30% plus interest, no legitimate business can survive a bank loan in this climate.”

    Echotitbits take: The CBN is in a “catch-22” situation—keep rates high to fight inflation and protect the Naira, or lower them to save the real sector. Expect the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to mount as manufacturers begin to report shrinking margins in their Q1 results.

    Source: BusinessDay – https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/high-interest-rates-push-lending-growth-to-five-year-low/, February 3, 2026

    Photo credit: BusinessDay

  • Naira Maintains Stability as CBN Projects Positive 2026 Outlook

    Naira Maintains Stability as CBN Projects Positive 2026 Outlook

    Naira Maintains Stability as CBN Projects Positive 2026 Outlook

    The naira traded within a narrow band mid-week as CBN interventions and a more optimistic 2026 forecast supported FX market stability.

    Further reporting across multiple outlets indicates the development is drawing heightened attention, with stakeholders watching for next steps from relevant authorities and institutions.

    Echotitbits take: Stability is the goal, but the true test will be the CBN’s ability to maintain these levels without burning through foreign reserves. Keep an eye on the February inflation data to see if the currency stability translates to lower consumer prices.

    Source: The Guardian — https://guardian.ng/business-services/cbn-survey-projects-steady-naira-improved-economic-activities-in-2026/ (2026-01-21)

    Photo credit: The Guardian

    2026-01-21 15:00:00

  • CBN projects faster growth and stronger reserves in 2026 as inflation eases

    CBN projects faster growth and stronger reserves in 2026 as inflation eases

    According to Premium Times, the CBN’s 2026 macro outlook projects faster economic expansion alongside further inflation moderation and stronger external buffers.

    The baseline assumes reform momentum continues—supporting business confidence, improving FX market credibility, and lifting investment planning if volatility stays contained.

    On prices, the outlook points to headline inflation easing further in 2026 as food and energy pressures cool and supply conditions improve, though risks remain from oil-output shocks and fiscal slippages.

    CBN also sketches a fiscal picture that still requires revenue reforms and expenditure discipline to avoid renewed macro stress.

    Vanguard reported the central bank forecast includes “a 4.49 per cent growth in GDP” and external reserves rising to “$51.04 billion.” Leadership similarly highlighted that CBN “forecasts $51bn external reserves in 2026.”

    Echotitbits take: This is cautious optimism, not a victory lap. Watch oil output, FX liquidity, and whether fiscal discipline holds—those will decide if the forecast becomes reality.

    Source: Premium Times – https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/846528-nigerian-economy-expected-to-grow-4-49-in-2026-inflation-to-ease-cbn.html December 30, 2025
    Premium Times December 30, 2025

    Photo Credit: Premium Times

  • Naira Opens 2026 With Strong Gains as Reform Confidence Grows

    Naira Opens 2026 With Strong Gains as Reform Confidence Grows

    Figures cited by Daily Post show that the Nigerian Naira began the 2026 trading year on a positive note, appreciating to N1,430.84 against the U.S. dollar in the official market. This represents a 0.34% gain compared to the closing rate of N1,435.75 recorded on December 31, 2025.

    The currency’s performance is being linked to renewed investor confidence following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) aggressive monetary tightening and structural reforms in the foreign exchange market. Market analysts suggest that the stability seen in the opening days of the year could signal a less volatile period for the local currency.

    In its first trading assessment of the year, BusinessDay noted that the ‘Naira extends rally in first trading day of 2026,’ as supply liquidity showed signs of improvement. Meanwhile, The Nation reported that the apex bank is betting on ‘structural changes in oil, tax, and foreign exchange markets to sustain growth and disinflation’ throughout the fiscal year.

    Echotitbits take: This early gain is a psychological victory for the CBN’s ‘orthodox’ monetary policy. If the bank can maintain this trajectory without depleting reserves too quickly, we may see a gradual convergence between the official and parallel market rates by the second quarter.

    Source: Nigeria Housing Market — https://www.nigeriahousingmarket.com/news/naira-outlook-2026-analysts-project-stronger-fx-stability-as-fundamentals-improve
    Nigeria Housing Market January 3, 2026

    Photo Credit: Nigeria Housing Market

  • CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%

    CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%

    2025-12-31 09:00:00

    According to The Nation, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest macro outlook projects real GDP growth of about 4.49% in 2026, while average inflation is expected to ease to roughly 12.94% as reforms, forex stability and improved output begin to bite.

    The outlook points to a mix of stronger non‑oil activity and a steadier external position, with the apex bank signalling that structural reforms and better macro coordination could support a more durable recovery.

    Markets will watch whether the assumptions—especially oil output and FX conditions—hold into Q1 2026, and how the forecast shapes monetary-policy expectations.

    Reuters also reported that the CBN “forecasts 4.49% economic growth” and sees inflation “easing to an average 12.94% in 2026,” while BusinessDay similarly wrote that Nigeria’s economy is “projected to expand by 4.49 percent in 2026.”

    Echotitbits take: The headline numbers look optimistic versus Nigeria’s recent inflation experience. The real test is whether disinflation is driven by supply (food, logistics, energy) and FX stability—not just base effects. Watch Q1 inflation prints and CBN messaging on rates/liquidity.

    Source: Guardian — December 31, 2025 (https://guardian.ng/business-services/cbn-projects-4-49-growth-lower-inflation-in-2026-outlook/)

    Guardian December 31, 2025

    Photo Credit: Guardian

  • CBN Data Shows Drop in Diaspora Remittance Inflows via IMTOs

    CBN Data Shows Drop in Diaspora Remittance Inflows via IMTOs

    Photo Credit: The Punch
    2025-12-26 06:20:00

    In an update published by *PUNCH*, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data shows inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) declined, underlining how fragile FX supply remains even after reforms aimed at improving official-market pricing.

    The report points to pressures that can affect remittances—global cost-of-living stress, immigration policy shifts in key sending countries, and the growing use of informal channels that bypass official reporting.

    For Nigeria’s FX market, reduced IMTO inflows can tighten liquidity, complicate supply management, and intensify demand pressure—especially for households and SMEs that rely on remittances for consumption and working capital.

    Analysts will likely watch whether the trend persists into subsequent quarters, and whether policy signals further encourage formal remittance routing.

    *Nairametrics* wrote that “inflows fell to $888.39 million in Q1 2025, compared to $1.08 billion” in the same period of 2024, while *Proshare* stated inflows “declined by -6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to US$888m in Q1 2025.”

    Echotitbits take: Remittances are a lifeline—but they’re also a policy barometer. If official inflows keep sliding, Nigeria may need stronger incentives for formal channels (pricing, speed, trust) and tighter scrutiny of leakages to informal pipelines.

    Source: The Punch — Dec 26, 2025 (https://punchng.com/cbn-reports-276m-drop-in-imtos-inflows/)

    Photo credit/source: The Punch
    The Punch 2025-12-26

  • CBN’s BDC approvals deliver ₦192m in licensing fees as FX clean-up continues

    CBN’s BDC approvals deliver ₦192m in licensing fees as FX clean-up continues

    Photo credit: The Guardian Nigeria News — CBN HQ Abuja:

    2025-12-20 12:25:00

    Reporting by Punch indicates the Central Bank of Nigeria has collected ₦192 million in licensing-related fees after issuing final approvals to 82 bureau de change operators.

    The approvals sit within the CBN’s broader attempt to formalise retail FX activity, reduce leakages and improve traceability in foreign-exchange transactions.

    Beyond the revenue, the regulatory signal is the big story: tighter licensing and supervision could reshape the BDC landscape by pushing informal operators out and strengthening compliance expectations for approved players.

    For consumers, the outcome to watch is whether a more regulated ecosystem improves transparency and pricing—or simply shifts activity into other channels if supply remains constrained.

    Reuters reported the same final-licence milestone, describing approvals for “82 BDCs” and linking it to efforts to curb street trading.

    CBN guidance on BDC licensing also details fee requirements, including a “non-refundable final licence fee,” consistent with a structured licensing process.

    Echotitbits take: The real test is enforcement. If street trading remains unchecked, licensing reforms won’t translate into stability. Also watch how banks and fintechs integrate retail FX flows as regulators tighten the market structure.

    Source: The Guardian Nigeria News — December 20, 2025 https://guardian.ng/featured/cbn-issues-82-new-bdc-licences-moves-to-curb-unregistered-fx-operators/

  • Lawmakers Move to Place CBN Operations Under Tighter Oversight

    Lawmakers Move to Place CBN Operations Under Tighter Oversight

    Photo Credit:Punch Newspapers

    The House of Representatives is considering a bill that would subject key operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria to stronger legislative oversight and transparency requirements. Sponsors of the proposal say recent controversies over foreign‑exchange management, Ways and Means financing and intervention funds justify clearer rules and reporting obligations.

    While acknowledging the need for central‑bank independence, proponents argue that accountability to the Nigerian people through parliament cannot be compromised. The bill could reshape the balance between monetary authorities and elected officials, with implications for banking regulation, inflation management and investor confidence.

    Source: Punch Newspapers – 12 Dec 2025

    2025-12-12 10:00:00 Punch Newspapers – 12 Dec 2025 2025-12-12