Photo Credit: The Punch
2025-12-22 08:00:00
Reporting by Punch indicates the Federal Government is projecting a smaller crude-oil revenue figure for 2026, putting expected receipts from crude sales at about ₦60.97 trillion—below the 2025 projection.
The estimate is tied to planning assumptions in the MTEF, including an oil benchmark price around $64.85 per barrel, daily output near 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange-rate assumption around ₦1,400/$.
The signal is that tighter oil expectations will increase pressure to grow non-oil revenues, control leakages, and keep spending plans realistic as macro risks remain elevated.
Reuters similarly summarised the plan as one that “assumes a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel” and output around 1.84 million bpd, while TheCable reported lawmakers endorsed the “projected crude oil benchmark prices of $64.85 per barrel” for planning.
Echotitbits take: Nigeria’s budget risk remains production, not just price. If output falls short, even supportive pricing won’t protect revenues. Watch for upstream security actions, investment-friendly reforms, and a stronger non-oil collection push.
Source: The Punch — December 22, 2025 (https://punchng.com/fg-projects-lower-n60-97tn-oil-revenue-for-2026/)
The Punch 2025-12-22