Echotitbits – Nigeria News

Tag: Nigeria economy 2026

  • Nigeria Projected to Reach 5.5% GDP Growth as Economic Reforms Gain Traction

    Nigeria Projected to Reach 5.5% GDP Growth as Economic Reforms Gain Traction

    According to reporting by The Nation Newspaper, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has released a bullish forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, predicting a 5.5% expansion in the nation’s Gross Domestic Product. The group attributes this optimistic outlook to the maturation of bold policy shifts, including the stabilization of the foreign exchange market and a steady decline in headline inflation. This projection suggests that the “crisis conditions” which characterized the previous two years are finally giving way to a more sustainable growth trajectory.

    The NESG’s assessment emphasizes that while the macroeconomic indicators are turning green, the government must prioritize the institutionalization of these reforms to ensure they translate into tangible improvements in the welfare of citizens. The report highlights that the private sector is regaining confidence, which is expected to drive investment in critical sectors like manufacturing and agriculture throughout the year.

    Validation of this positive trend is found in reports from Vanguard News and S&P Global. Vanguard notes that PwC experts also see a brightening outlook for 2026, though they caution that “the gains remain fragile and highly exposed to oil market volatility.” Meanwhile, S&P Global’s latest analysis supports the growth narrative, stating, “We forecast Nigeria’s real GDP growth will average 3.7% to 5.5% over 2025-2026, supported by both the non-oil and oil sectors.”

    Echotitbits take: The 5.5% growth target is ambitious but achievable if the current exchange rate stability holds. However, the disconnect between GDP growth and the cost of living remains a significant political risk for the administration. Watch for the Q1 2026 productivity data to see if the manufacturing sector actually picks up the slack as predicted.

    Source: The Punch – https://punchng.com/impi-projects-nigerias-gdp-to-hit-5-5/ , February 3, 2026

    Photo credit: The Punch

  • Non-Oil Sector Projected to Drive Nigerian Economic Growth in 2026

    Non-Oil Sector Projected to Drive Nigerian Economic Growth in 2026

    In an update published by The Guardian, the Director General of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), Agabaidu Jideani, has projected that Nigeria’s economic expansion this year will be predominantly fueled by non-oil contributions. Jideani noted that while security and political distractions remain significant risks, the momentum gained in sectors like agriculture, technology, and manufacturing late last year provides a solid foundation for ‘guarded optimism’ in the 2026 fiscal cycle.

    The ACCI chief highlighted that the stabilization of the Naira, which closed 2025 at approximately ₦1,445–₦1,465 per dollar, is a critical buffer against imported inflation. Furthermore, the 2026 budget’s heavy allocation toward intelligence and counter-terrorism—totaling over ₦5.4 trillion—is viewed as a necessary expenditure to protect the nation’s burgeoning non-oil trade routes from persistent banditry and disruption.

    Supporting analysis from Channels TV and Daily Post echoes this economic sentiment. Channels TV reported that ‘CBN’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 57.6 points signals strengthening economic activity,’ while Daily Post featured an economist’s view: ‘The shift away from oil dependency is no longer a choice but a survival strategy for the 2026 budget.’

    Echotitbits take: Guarded optimism is the keyword here. While the non-oil sector is growing, it is still vulnerable to the ‘political maneuvering’ Jideani warned about as 2027 election preparations begin. Business owners should watch for how the ₦5.4 trillion security spend translates into actual safety on the Lagos-Kano and Port Harcourt-Enugu trade corridors.
    Source: The Guardian – https://guardian.ng/business-services/2026-gdp-growth-projected-at-4-1-amid-non-oil-sector-expansion/ January 5, 2026

    Photo Credit: The Guardian

  • Naira Opens 2026 With Strong Gains as Reform Confidence Grows

    Naira Opens 2026 With Strong Gains as Reform Confidence Grows

    Figures cited by Daily Post show that the Nigerian Naira began the 2026 trading year on a positive note, appreciating to N1,430.84 against the U.S. dollar in the official market. This represents a 0.34% gain compared to the closing rate of N1,435.75 recorded on December 31, 2025.

    The currency’s performance is being linked to renewed investor confidence following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) aggressive monetary tightening and structural reforms in the foreign exchange market. Market analysts suggest that the stability seen in the opening days of the year could signal a less volatile period for the local currency.

    In its first trading assessment of the year, BusinessDay noted that the ‘Naira extends rally in first trading day of 2026,’ as supply liquidity showed signs of improvement. Meanwhile, The Nation reported that the apex bank is betting on ‘structural changes in oil, tax, and foreign exchange markets to sustain growth and disinflation’ throughout the fiscal year.

    Echotitbits take: This early gain is a psychological victory for the CBN’s ‘orthodox’ monetary policy. If the bank can maintain this trajectory without depleting reserves too quickly, we may see a gradual convergence between the official and parallel market rates by the second quarter.

    Source: Nigeria Housing Market — https://www.nigeriahousingmarket.com/news/naira-outlook-2026-analysts-project-stronger-fx-stability-as-fundamentals-improve
    Nigeria Housing Market January 3, 2026

    Photo Credit: Nigeria Housing Market

  • CPPE: 2026 stability hinges on sustaining reforms, but manufacturing remains fragile without cost relief

    CPPE: 2026 stability hinges on sustaining reforms, but manufacturing remains fragile without cost relief

    2026-01-02 09:00:00
    In an analysis published by The Guardian, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) projects Nigeria could see greater stability and growth in 2026 if reforms are sustained, but cautions that manufacturing remains fragile under persistent structural constraints.

    The analysis highlights how energy, logistics and financing costs continue to weigh on factories, arguing that macro stability alone won’t lift the real sector without targeted execution that reduces operating costs.

    CPPE’s framing is that reform continuity must translate into measurable improvements in business conditions, otherwise growth remains narrow and disconnected from jobs and purchasing power.

    Validation: Vanguard echoed the execution theme, reporting that gains hinge on “effective execution” of incentives and enabling measures. AllAfrica reinforced CPPE’s structural-risk warning and quoted: “Nigeria’s manufacturing revival hinges on managing structural risks…”

    Echotitbits take: Reforms must translate into lower production costs. Watch early-2026 signals—grid stability versus self-generation expense, FX predictability for inputs and whether tax changes simplify compliance rather than create new leak points.

    Source: The Guardian — 2025-12-29 (https://guardian.ng/business-services/cppe-projects-stability-growth-in-2026-with-sustained-reforms/)
    The Guardian 2025-12-29

    Photo Credit: The Guardian

  • CBN outlook: bank recapitalisation may keep markets bullish—but concentration risks loom

    CBN outlook: bank recapitalisation may keep markets bullish—but concentration risks loom

    2026-01-02 06:00:00
    In an update published by Punch, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that Nigeria’s capital market could remain upbeat in 2026, helped by banking-sector recapitalisation, improved investor sentiment and pro‑growth policies.

    The CBN’s broader outlook links market sentiment to macro stability—exchange-rate management, inflation expectations and the credibility of policy signals—suggesting that a cleaner macro picture could support risk appetite.

    But the outlook also flags potential downsides, including investor fatigue if bank capital raises crowd out other issuers.

    The Guardian, referencing the CBN outlook, notes the market is expected to stay “bullish, supported by bank recapitalisation” and rising confidence. In an analysis of recapitalisation dynamics, a separate market brief warns that “despite the bullish momentum, the capital market could face higher concentration risk” as bank issuance dominates.

    Echotitbits take: Recapitalisation can be a turbo‑charge for bank resilience—but it can also soak up liquidity and attention. Watch how quickly banks stagger rights issues/placements, whether pension funds rebalance, and if non‑bank corporates still find room to raise long‑term capital without being priced out.

    Source: The Punch — January 2, 2026 (https://punchng.com/bank-recapitalisation-to-drive-bullish-capital-market-says-cbn/)
    The Punch 2026-01-02

    Photo Credit: The Punch

  • CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%

    CBN flags 2026 growth at 4.49%, expects inflation slide to 12.94%

    2025-12-31 09:00:00

    According to The Nation, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest macro outlook projects real GDP growth of about 4.49% in 2026, while average inflation is expected to ease to roughly 12.94% as reforms, forex stability and improved output begin to bite.

    The outlook points to a mix of stronger non‑oil activity and a steadier external position, with the apex bank signalling that structural reforms and better macro coordination could support a more durable recovery.

    Markets will watch whether the assumptions—especially oil output and FX conditions—hold into Q1 2026, and how the forecast shapes monetary-policy expectations.

    Reuters also reported that the CBN “forecasts 4.49% economic growth” and sees inflation “easing to an average 12.94% in 2026,” while BusinessDay similarly wrote that Nigeria’s economy is “projected to expand by 4.49 percent in 2026.”

    Echotitbits take: The headline numbers look optimistic versus Nigeria’s recent inflation experience. The real test is whether disinflation is driven by supply (food, logistics, energy) and FX stability—not just base effects. Watch Q1 inflation prints and CBN messaging on rates/liquidity.

    Source: Guardian — December 31, 2025 (https://guardian.ng/business-services/cbn-projects-4-49-growth-lower-inflation-in-2026-outlook/)

    Guardian December 31, 2025

    Photo Credit: Guardian